Housing market troubles on the horizon
In this DML Report…
In a detailed analysis of the U.S. housing market, 44 out of 50 major metros are exhibiting clear signs of distress, with homes remaining unsold for extended periods. According to a Realtor.com report, the typical home spent 60 days on the market in August 2025, marking a seven-day increase from the previous year and surpassing pre-pandemic averages. This trend is particularly evident in southern and western regions, where days on market have risen by an average of eight days year-over-year, compared to three days in the Midwest and two days in the Northeast. Of the 50 metros examined, 27 now have listings lingering longer than their pre-pandemic norms, driven by factors such as elevated mortgage rates and a slowdown in domestic migration.
Specific metros in Florida and Texas are among the hardest hit, with Miami recording 90 days on market in August 2025, up from 74 days the year prior. Orlando saw 77 days, an increase from 63; Tampa, 77 days from 64; and Jacksonville, 74 days from 61. Austin, Texas, reached 72 days from 65, while Phoenix, Arizona; San Antonio, Texas; Riverside, California; Memphis, Tennessee; and Tucson, Arizona, all exceeded 64 days. Nashville, Tennessee, experienced the sharpest rise at 21 days, averaging 59 days total, and Las Vegas, Nevada, averaged 56 days, up from 42, alongside a 31% surge in housing supply—the largest among major metros and triple the national average, per Redfin data. Miami also reported 57 de-listings per 100 new listings in July.
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See the video below:Home prices in these former boomtowns have begun to decline amid the inventory buildup, with Tampa down 6.2%, Austin 6%, Miami 4.6%, Orlando 4.3%, and Dallas 3.9%, according to Zillow. National home sales are projected to hit four million transactions this year, the lowest since 1995, as forecasted by Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale citing National Association of Realtors data. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel attributes the shift to a normalization from pandemic-era booms in prices, sales, and construction. Zillow senior economist Kara Ng points to excess supply as the primary driver of price cuts, while housing economist Amy Nixon highlights Dallas's vulnerability to a crash due to persistent high mortgage rates, reduced migration, and tech sector layoffs leading to further price reductions.